THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPACEX LAUNCH FAILURE IS REAL

"For the first time ever, the NASA press site at Kennedy Space Center will be evacuated for Monday's launch attempt, as will the neighboring Vehicle Assembly Building and the rest of the former shuttle launch complex. A risk evaluation by the Air Force shows that the Dragon capsule, full of toxic fuel, could parachute down into this targeted area in the event of a launch failure. The wind is expected to be blowing right in the press site's direction, thus the evacuation order.  Journalists as well as NASA and SpaceX public relations staff and VIPs have been ordered to find alternative viewing sites...On June 2015, a Dragon and all its contents were destroyed when the Falcon rocket failed shortly after liftoff from Cape Canaveral in June 2015."

By Juan Montoya
That quote, from an Associated Press story about the Monday launch of a Falcon rocket and Dragon capsule should make all those who have been cheerleading the coming of the SpaceX commercial vertical launch to Boca Chica Beach take a good hard look at their support for this project.
SpaceX mogul Elon Musk has already been given $25 million in incentives to bring his rocket show to the lomas of Boca Chica. And – as is his trademark for these projects – the flights he predicted would begin in 2013, have not materialized. Yet, the restrictions on local residents to use the beach have been passed into law. When and if the launches start, the company would virtually own the public beaches and even spectators would have to crane their necks from as far as 10 miles away to see the takeoffs. That would happen 12 times a year, or once a month. SpaceX would have full control of access to the beach days before and after the launch.
After the announcement, we took the liberty of measuring the distance from the Kennedy Space Center NASA press site and the Vehicle Assembly building. They are both approximately three miles from the launch site.
Measuring the distance from the proposed SpaceX site to Koepernick Shores, it is just about a quarter of a mile.
It is just a little over five miles to the nearest town, Port Isabel.
That's why statements like Brownsville Economic Development Vice President (and former Herald reporter) Gilbert Salinas who blithely stated that the fuel that the Falcon and Falcon Heavy launch rockets used was kerosene, the same, he said, that "you would use in your campfire" sound ludicrous in retrospect.
In fact, the Falcon launchers use 119,100 Kilograms (262,570 pounds) of Rocket Propellant 1 (RP1) and 276,600kg (276,600 pounds) of Liquid Oxygen.
 RP-1 is significantly more powerful than Liquid Hydrogen 2 by volume. RP-1 also has a fraction of the toxicity and carcinogenic hazards of hydrazine, another room-temperature liquid fuel.
But, experts say, any hydrocarbon-based fuel (like RP1) when burned produces more air pollution than hydrogen. RP1 combustion produces carbon dioxide (CO₂), toxic carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC) emissions, and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), while hydrogen (H₂) reacts with oxygen (O₂) to produce only water (H₂O), with some unreacted H₂ also released.
Now, would you feel safe if you lived in Port Isabel knowing that you are a mere five miles downwind from the SpaceX launch site? Mexico, to the south, is less than three miles away.

Also, the SpaceX launch site lies within the Las Palomas Wildlife Management Area, adjacent to the South Bay of the Laguna Madre, the spawning waters of gulf shrimp, redfish, and other aquatic species native to South Texas and of immense economic importance to tourism and commercial fishing.
The Texas Parks and Wildlife sates in its website that:
"With much of the upper and lower Laguna Madre shorelines protected from development by large ranches on the west and Padre Island National Seashore on the east, these bays are as remote and pristine as any in Texas. Their clear shallow waters promote the growth of extensive sea grass beds. In fact, about 80 percent of the remaining sea grass habitat in Texas is located in the Laguna Madre system.
These sea grass meadows provide protective nursery areas for larval and juvenile fish, shrimp and crabs as well as cover and feeding areas for adult fish including spotted sea trout and red drum.
Because of low fresh water inflow, little rainfall, and high evaporation, the salinity of the Laguna Madre often exceeds that of seawater. The Laguna Madre system is the only hyper-saline coastal lagoon in North America and one of only five in the world. Despite harsh conditions imposed by high salinities, the Laguna Madre is an extremely productive bay system and is renowned among anglers for its world class fisheries."
And, "Oyster reefs are common in most other bay systems along the Texas coast. Because of the Laguna Madre’s high salinity, they are found only in South Bay at the southern end of the lower Laguna Madre where salinities are more moderate. Rock reefs represent another natural hard substrate found in the Laguna Madre. There are two types of rock reefs found in the Laguna, both of which provide habitat for a variety of plants and animals."
Now, imagine that what happened to the Spacex Falcon rocket last June was to happen over this aquatic nursery and the toxic gases are carried by the traditional southeast trade winds over the South Bay, to Port Isabel and to the Laguna Madre. Would Musk have enough money to pay for the ecological damage that would result from all those toxic gases and sludge falling into the water and over the people there?
Oh, and remember those 600 jobs at a minimum of $55,000 that BEDC's Salinas was using to sell SpaceX?
This is what SpaceX actually promised the FAA in its Environmental Impact Statement.

Table 2.1-2. Personnel for Proposed SpaceX Texas Launch Site Operations

Year Full-time SpaceX Full-time SpaceX Employees/Contractors Employees/Contractors plus
Working On-Site Additional Local/Transient Workers
during Launch Campaigns

Year                           Full time            Local/Transient
2013                              30                                   130
2014                              75                                   175
2015                            100                                   200
2016                            100                                   200
2017                            110                                   210
2018                            130                                   230
2019                            150                                   250
2020                            150                                   250
2021                            150                                   250
2022                            150                                   250
We're in the middle of 2016 and so far there is only a mound of dirt out on Boca Chica and none of the 100 full-time jobs and 200 part-time jobs Musk promised. And we hope Salinas doesn't use RP1 to light his campfire when he is allowed to go fishing in Boca Chica.
His credibility (and BEDC's) couldn't take any more burning.