THE HOME STRETCH: NO LOOKING BACK FOR RUBEN AND JOE

By Juan Montoya
If you think the voters are tired of having so many elections this year, imagine being one of the candidates who have gotten into the runoff after surviving the culling in the March primary.
Not only did they survive the initial slug fest, but then they had to wait nearly three months to go one on one with their nearest rival in their particular races.
One of the most bruising was the Cameron County Judge contest. There were four candidates in March who split the 16,640 votes cast then. Joe G. Rivera, the current county clerk got 7,271, Brownsville attorney Ruben R. Pena, who had run for county commissioner in 2012 against Ernie
Hernandez was second with 4,730, Martin Arambula, a school district employee and Port of Brownsville commissioner got 3,980 and bail bondsman T. Rivera got 659 of his friends to darken the oval for him.
In this runoff, Peña not only has to make up the 2,541 vote difference between his votes and Rivera's, but also try to entice the 4,539 voters who cast their ballots for Arambula and the other Rivera. It's been done before, but very rarely.
At this stage of the game, after months of enticing voters with their qualifications and platforms, candidates have turned to casting a bad light on their opponents character, history and ancestry. Peña has pointed out in his mailouts and social media spots the fact the after 36 years Rivera has gotten more than 20 raises and that he seems more interested in feathering his nest and burnishing his image at public expense (a personal portrait) rather than providing a service to the people.
The "Friends of Joe Rivera" political action committee, in turn, is distributing fliers with snippets of newspaper articles focusing on what they say are the dishonest dealings they say that Peña performed in the execution of La Paloma farmer Rex McGarr estate in 1982. The flier state that Peña and Robert Pedraza, McGarr's foreman, swindled McGarr out of  $1.8 million so that at the time of his death in 1986, the estate was worthless.
That, however, was more than 40 years ago so it makes it hard for the immediacy to sink in..
And in spite of many legal actions taken on that case, no legal charges were even proven against either man. They cite special prosecutor (De Witt County Assistant District Attorney Alger Kendall) telling a court “that Peña escaped indictment on misapplication of trust and other charges brought against him by the heirs because the statute of limitations had run out on the allegations against Peña.”
When you hear Joe on the hustings, he recites the tale, adding a few appropriate comments and hinting at other Peña wrong doings against his clients. As is the case with most legal arguments, unless you're on a jury, they become confusing and complex things to follow and people listen politely until the time comes for the food to be served.
The McGarr factor was played heavily by Hernandez in his race against Peña in 2010. Did it make a difference? It's hard to say, those elections were marred by the manipulation of the mail-in votes harvested by the Hernandez political machine. Hernandez beat Peñ2 by 49 votes in the runoff 2,159 to 2,110. But Hernandez got 240 mail-in votes to Peña's 34, a difference of of 206. Without the mail-in voter manipulation, Peña would have been county commissioner.
A local polling firm has released their survey results to us in that race and they say that a poll of 343 respondents yielded the finding that Rivera leads Peña 53 to 30 percent. with 17 percent undecided. There is, however, a 5 percent margin of error either way. Take these results with a beach full of sand.
In all fairness, the polling company (Dann Rivera's Victory Data) is paid by Rivera for his labors so one has to factor that into the mix.
This is South Texas and elections are emotional things here. Figure that Joe Rivera's name probably appears on your birth certificate, marriage (or divorce) certificates, property and home sales, business filings, etc. In other words, people are side to having Joe Rivera's name in their homes. Peña will be pressed to overcome the name ID Rivera has acquired for good or ill after 36 years.
 But just as having name ID is an advantage, it can also cut both ways. Your name can be associated with a too long longevity in office, excesses in spending, or a perceived personal entrenchment in public office.
The data from the Victory Data poll indicates a generational split between both candidates, with those between 18 and 34 favoring Peña and those 35 and above leaning toward Rivera. If Peña can excite the young voter to come out between now and May 27, he might have a credible chance to make an impact on the final outcome.
However, if that group is not awakened and motivated, it might favor those that feel comfortable having Joe over at the courthouse in Brownsville for another four years in a different office. The decision will be left up to you, dear readers, the voters.