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Democrats have their sights set on Texas, as polls suggest Republicans’ grip on the Lone Star State is slipping in the midterms. Democrats are increasingly hopeful about their chances of flipping the state this year in both the Senate and gubernatorial races.
In the Senate race, polls show a toss-up between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, while (various pols polls show aa tight race) between Republican Governor Greg Abbott against Brownsville's Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa in the gubernatorial race.
Trump was 18 points underwater, with 38 percent approving of his job performance and 56 percent disapproving, according to Civiqs. In 2024, the state backed Trump by nearly 14 points over Harris.
Overall, Trump’s approval rating stood at -26 points in the latest Civiqs poll, with 60 percent disapproving of him and 34 percent approving as of Wednesday.
Here's where Trump’s approval rating stands in the states with the largest agricultural revenue:
California
Trump’s approval rating in California is one of his worst in the nation. The state had $59.01 billion in annual revenue, according to the 2022 Census. His approval stood at 24 percent, while 71 percent disapproved of him.
In 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Trump by 20 points. This year, a gubernatorial race pits former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, against Republican Steve Hilton, though Becerra is favored.
Some House races are competitive, including the Central Valley seat held by Republican Representative David Valadao, where agricultural issues could be more salient in November.
IowaIowa, once a battleground, has shifted rightward over the past decade. But Democrats believe backlash to Trump’s tariffs and rising diesel prices could improve their chances in the state, where several races could be competitive.
According to Civiqs, Trump’s approval was -20 points in Iowa, even though he carried it by 13 points over Harris in 2024. Only 35 percent of Iowans approved of him, compared to 55 percent who disapproved.
In the Senate race, Democratic state legislator Josh Turek and Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson are facing off in an increasingly competitive race, while Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand has built out a slim polling lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the governor’s race. There are also three competitive House races in Iowa.
NebraskaIn Nebraska, Trump’s approval rating was 5 points in the negative, with 43 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving, according to Civiqs. Nebraska voted for Trump by nearly 20 points in 2024.
The Senate race is viewed as being potentially competitive. Republican Senator Pete Ricketts faces a challenge from independent Dan Osborn, and some polls suggest a competitive race.
Minnesota
Trump’s approval was -35 points in Minnesota, where 28 percent of respondents approved of him, and 63 percent disapproved, according to Civiqs. Harris won Minnesota by about 4 points in 2024.
Republicans hope to make the state competitive this year, but polling and forecasts show Democrats Amy Klobuchar and Peggy Flanagan leading Republicans Lisa Demuth and Michelle Tafoya in the gubernatorial and Senate races, respectively.
IllinoisIn the reliably Democratic state of Illinois, only 29 percent of respondents approved of Trump, while 66 percent disapproved. While Chicago powers Democratic victories in the state, the large, rural downstate regions are more conservative and home to many farmers.
Harris won Illinois by about 11 points in 2024, and Democrats are favored in statewide races this year.
KansasTrump has a positive approval rating in Kansas, where 47 percent of respondents approved of his administration, and 44 percent disapproved, according to Civiqs.
Democrats are hoping to make the Sunflower State more competitive this year. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Cindy Holscher and Republican Ty Masterson are running to succeed Democrat Laura Kelly. In the Senate race, Democrat Adam Hamilton is running against GOP Senator Roger Marshall.
Kansas voted for Trump by about 16 points in 2024.
North CarolinaIn North Carolina, which gave Trump about a 3-point victory in 2024, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a net -18 points. Thirty-eight percent of respondents approved of the president, while 56 percent disapproved, according to Civiqs.
The state is home to one of the most watched Senate races, where Democrat Roy Cooper, a former governor, has built a polling lead over Michael Whatley, former chair of the Republican National Committee, to flip the seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
I
ndianaIndiana backed Trump by 19 points in 2024, but Trump’s approval has declined to -6 points. Forty-nine percent of Indiana voters disapproved of Trump, compared to 43 percent who approved, according to Civiqs.
Indiana has no Senate or gubernatorial race this year.