EARLY POLL RESULTS ARE IN

By Juan Montoya

El Rrun Rrun sources have leaked early results from polls conducted in some county races and – if these preliminary numbers from one of the most prestigious South Texas polling firm are to be trusted – many candidates are running neck to neck.
Fly-in-the-Wall Polling, Inc., says these are good numbers.
But, as usual, these early polling results contain some surprises.
The most surprising numbers come from the race between incumbent Cameron County Treasurer David Betancourt and challenger Tad Hasse. Betancourt, who was said to be some 20 points ahead less than a month ago, is now said to be ahead by a mere three points.
Our fly in the corner of the room indicates that if a race were to be held today among the people polled, David would win by only a 42 percent to to 39 percent.
This, despite the fact that Betancourt has a prestigious (and politically respected) family name that has carried many races in Cameron County. In fact, his sister Laura, a County-Court-at-Law judge, did not draw an opponent. And his father, Adolph, was one of the first Mexican-American attorneys to have been invited to join the DA's office after he soundly beat the local DA efforts to prosecute some high-profile cases.
Additionally, David has been a city planner, a public school teacher, a city commissioner, and was elected county treasurer easily over Eddie Gonzalez, who foolishly chose to run as a Republican as did his former brother-in-law Carlos Cascos, who was elected county judge.
What happened?
As many have said before: "It's the economy, stupid."
Hasse, David's opponent, carries a very simple (Betancourt says it's simplistic) message. "If elected, I will abolish the office and save taxpayers $1 million over the next four years."
That message, according to the fly in the corner, has resonated with the voters in recession-stricken Cameron County. Add that to the fact that David has been circumspect in responding to the Hasse platform, plus the nagging doubt that many voters have about big government spending our money foolishly and presto! the message has struck the voters' fancy.
"Everyone is watching this race closely because one candidate seems to have everything going for him like political contacts, incumbency, etc., and the other is making large inroads into the poll numbers," said the fly. "Something is happening."
Another race that has become interesting is the one between the candidates for commissioner of Precinct 2. In that race, the fly (take this with a grain of salt, now) says that if Ernie Hernandez and Ernesto De Leon ran against each other (both former city commissioners) they would be virtually deadlocked among those polled at 40 to 38 percent respectively. Right behind them are Enrique Escobedo and Pastor Victor Alvarez. Forming another node close behind come Ruben Peña and the rest of the other horses.
In other words, the candidates with the core constituencies are making their presence felt among those responding, but because of the number of candidates and the time left before the primary, it's still a tossup on who'll end in the runoff.
Flip a coin.
In the County-Court-at-Law race, Dolores Zarate and David Gonzalez III were believed running virtually neck-to-neck. But the fly now says that Zarat has pulled slightly ahead by a mere 3 to 5 points past the margin of error. The other two candidates Everardo "EV" Garcia and Robert Mendoza (a last-minute filer) lag behind the two leaders.
Zarate makes claim to a lifelong experience facing adversity and making the best of it, while Gonzalez scoffs at the Horatio Alger picture saying the Zarates actually come from money and that his own background shows what someone who comes from a disadvantaged background can do if he puts his mind to it.
The Zarate supporters claim that with Gonzalez's ties to sitting District Attorney Armando Villalobos, it'll be tough for Gonzalez to assert his independence on the bench.
"Imagine if you go to his court and the DA asks for something," said one. "Which side do you think he'll take? Don't you think that he'll remember that Villalobos endorsed him for the seat?"
But Gonzalez counters that as a prosecutor he has made it a career of defending victims and that once on the bench, only the code of judicial ethics will be his guiding light.
"I come from parents who worked picking cotton in the fields of South Texas," he said recently. "The only thing that will guide me are the values of honesty and integrity that my parents told me. Politics won't influence judicial decisions in my court."
"Those two are the leaders by double digits ahead EV and Mendoza," said the fly. "It will probably come to how many percentage points EV and Mendoza draw to determine whether either will have to think runoff."
With that, the fly flew off.