CONSERVATIVE SCOTUS HANDS HILLARY THE PRESIDENCY

By Juan Montoya

The jubilance of the 25 Republican governors and attorney generals from the 26 states that challenged the executive orders issued by President Barack Obama after the U.S. Supreme Court split 4-4 along conservative and liberal lines may be short-lived until November and turn out to be a godsend to Democratic Party presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

Obama had issued the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) executive order that targeted the nearly 4.3 million undocumented parents of citizens and lawful residents, and the second expanding the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), initiative aimed at non-citizens who came to the country as children.

"We'll bring more undocumented immigrants out of the shadows so they can play by the rules, pay their full share of taxes, pass a criminal background check and get right with the law," Obama told an audience in Nevada after the programs were announced.
The challengers – mostly Republican governors and attorney generals from 26 states – said the unilateral actions were unconstitutional and they violated a federal law that sets forward how agencies can establish regulations.
But while the Republicans, conservatives and ultra-rightists Tea party adherents savor this slap at Obama's directives, they might want to think of what the consequences the decision will have on the upcoming presidential elections.
More importantly, the 4-4 tie on the Supreme Court that put Obamas' directives on hold, could come before a court with a justice (or justices) appointed by Clinton if the Latino vote gives her the win over Donald Trump.
With three of the surviving Supreme Court justices in or near their 80s, successors named by the next president could shift the ideological makeup of the nation’s highest court.
Antonin Scalia, who was nominated by President Ronald Reagan, had served on the Supreme Court since September 1986. His death left the court divided along ideological lines. Three of the eight remaining justices are age 77 or older.

In the 2012 presidential election, Latino voters – 71 percent of whom supported Obama – helped create a firewall for him key states.  In Colorado, for example, the rising share of Latino voters was enough to win the state for Democrats despite white voters’ support for President Obama dropping by 6 percentage points from 2008.

The Center For American Progress Action Fund simulated the voting patters for the 2016 elections and found that: "The rising share of Latino voters in key states may have an even more significant impact on the 2016 presidential election, especially if voter turnout rates are high.

"To gain a better understanding of the growing Latino influence, the Center for American Progress Action Fund conducted an electoral simulation of the six states with the largest projected share of Latino eligible voters in 2016 and for which 2012 exit polling data are available.

"Although we factor in the projected growth of eligible voters of all racial and ethnic groups, in each of the states examined, Latino voters will make up the largest share of the states’ projected eligible voters of color in 2016. These states are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada."

The most telling of these simulations indicate that:

"The rising share of Latino voters in key states may have an even more significant impact on the 2016 presidential election, especially if voter turnout rates are high. To gain a better understanding of the growing Latino influence, the Center for American Progress Action Fund conducted an electoral simulation of the six states with the largest projected share of Latino eligible voters in 2016 and for which 2012 exit polling data are available. Although we factor in the projected growth of eligible voters of all racial and ethnic groups, in each of the states examined, Latino voters will make up the largest share of the states’ projected eligible voters of color in 2016. These states are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada."

There's no question that a strong turnout of the Latino vote will determine the outcome of the elections in November. Latinos comprise more than 17 percent of the total U.S. population, according to the Pew Research Center, and U.S. Census figures project that number to reach 28.6 percent by 2060.

The Voice of America reported that Obama received approximately 72 percent of the Hispanic vote in the last presidential election, according to Pew. This statistic and other data in this election cycle prove, “the Hispanic vote will heavily concentrate around a Democratic candidate.”

According to Gallup, Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton enjoys a more than 60 percent preference among Latinos, while presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is preferred by 14 percent of Latinos.

Now the predictions are that a heavy Latino turnout will determine which candidate wins Florida, Nevada and Colorado, the three states where the power of the Hispanic vote has the potential to determine who will become the next president.

The Heritage Foundation's Israel Ortega, who once worked as a Capitol Hill staffer, believes so, adding, "If this election is close, as many observers have pointed out, Nevada, for instance, a state with almost 20 percent of the Latino population eligible to vote, could determine the outcome of the election, undoubtedly.”

The Supreme Court decision may have been the catalysis to drive Hispanic advocates and organizations to rally the troops around the Democratic candidate knowing that a Clinton appointment to the Court may cast the deciding fifth vote to implement comprehensive immigration reform.