DOES HASSE HAVE A PATH TO VICTORY IN TEXAS SBOE RACE?

By Jim Barton

Brownsville Observer Blog

During the Republican Primary, the Brownsville Observer endorsed Tad Hasse for the Republican nomination for State Board of Education, District 2. The district covers 16 counties and a significant portion of Hidalgo County. We viewed Hasse as an outside-the-box thinker with an educational background, a give-you-the-shirt-off-his-back good guy with nerd skills and dress.

Hasse claimed he could actually win in November and sort of proved it with his numbers in the primary, trouncing Eric Garza, 67.1% to 32.9. This is a strange district, he told us, because no Republican seems to win in a presidential year, but no Democrat in a midterm election.

Based on voter history, patterns, and demographics, any Republican in District 2 could anticipate 94,000 votes without including the Hidalgo County portion. The Democratic candidates got roughly 73,000 votes without Hidalgo in 2014. (All this assumes contested races, and no way represents uncontested races.)

So, if a Republican doesn’t lose Hidalgo County by more than 21,000 votes, they win. As it turns out, that is exactly what has happened, with Republican candidates winning up and down ballot.

Why does this matter? It means Tad Hasse, being the Republican on the ballot, should win. He has the benefit of strong Republican, albeit rural, counties around the coastal bend.

He has a familiar last name to many in northern counties. supplemented by his math and educational background, but his most important asset is simply being Republican.

In this scenario, Cameron County doesn’t actually matter. Hasse only needs 35% of the vote, which happens to be the Republican core in Cameron.

Tad's achilles heal may be fundraising. In a subsequent segment, we will compare his monies with those of Ruben Cortez.

We understand that Hasse offended some northern party officials by reminding them that Democrat Cortez educational resume' extends only as far as a G.E.D.

No matter. That's actually a legitimate issue. Hell, Cortez has been at the State Board of Education long enough to have gotten a degree insomething, but education is not his priority, so much as political wheeling and dealing.

It's all about aptitude. Barney Fife was an able deputy, but would be out of his element as an NFL linebacker. Ruben Cortez is the ultimate politico, but is a fish out of water dealing with education issues.

Hasse needs Democratic support in three of the district's most populated counties—Hidalgo, Cameron, and Nueces.

Recall in presidential election years, this district is been completely blue. But, fewer voters cast ballots in midterm than presidential election years.

Of course, if Democrats in Hidalgo County, for example, increase their turnout by 10,000 over what they did in 2014, Hasse could falter, with Hidago's Democratic surge echoing that of Nueces County.

While Hasse may not have anticipated a "blue wave" before filing, incumbent Ruben Cortez should be living in Hidalgo County till November.