By Jim Barton
Brownsville Observer Blog
Hasse claimed he could actually win in November and sort of proved it with his numbers in the primary, trouncing Eric Garza, 67.1% to 32.9. This is a strange district, he told us, because no Republican seems to win in a presidential year, but no Democrat in a midterm election.
Based on voter history, patterns, and demographics, any Republican in District 2 could anticipate 94,000 votes without including the Hidalgo County portion. The Democratic candidates got roughly 73,000 votes without Hidalgo in 2014. (All this assumes contested races, and no way represents uncontested races.)
So, if a Republican doesn’t lose Hidalgo County by more than 21,000 votes, they win. As it turns out, that is exactly what has happened, with Republican candidates winning up and down ballot.
Why does this matter? It means Tad Hasse, being the Republican on the ballot, should win. He has the benefit of strong Republican, albeit rural, counties around the coastal bend.
He has a familiar last name to many in northern counties. supplemented by his math and educational background, but his most important asset is simply being Republican.
In this scenario, Cameron County doesn’t actually matter. Hasse only needs 35% of the vote, which happens to be the Republican core in Cameron.
Tad's achilles heal may be fundraising. In a subsequent segment, we will compare his monies with those of Ruben Cortez.We understand that Hasse offended some northern party officials by reminding them that Democrat Cortez educational resume' extends only as far as a G.E.D.
No matter. That's actually a legitimate issue. Hell, Cortez has been at the State Board of Education long enough to have gotten a degree insomething, but education is not his priority, so much as political wheeling and dealing.
It's all about aptitude. Barney Fife was an able deputy, but would be out of his element as an NFL linebacker. Ruben Cortez is the ultimate politico, but is a fish out of water dealing with education issues.
Hasse needs Democratic support in three of the district's most populated counties—Hidalgo, Cameron, and Nueces.
Recall in presidential election years, this district is been completely blue. But, fewer voters cast ballots in midterm than presidential election years.
Of course, if Democrats in Hidalgo County, for example, increase their turnout by 10,000 over what they did in 2014, Hasse could falter, with Hidago's Democratic surge echoing that of Nueces County.
While Hasse may not have anticipated a "blue wave" before filing, incumbent Ruben Cortez should be living in Hidalgo County till November.
13 comments:
It was boring on Barton's blog and it is boring here!
Barton has a GED, too, no? WTF
I will vote for Hassel
That Hesse si la hace
Sticking with my Raza. Voting for Ruben Cortez!!!!
First he needs a path to a bath.
Roman Perez needs to stick to what he’s good at like following little old ladies into the parking lot and scaring them as he’s ranting and raving and crying because nobody wanted to take him to the state convention. Boo hoo! Or maybe he can take his generous, feminine hips and sashay out of the denial corner and admit his to his kinky hobbies.
First two comments by McAllen's troll blogger, who claims he never makes anonymous comments. LOL ja ja ja ja ja ja
Copy some more restaurant reviews, pluto, than tell us about your next fake trip!
What happened to his teeth?
Tad Hasse is the best candidate for SBE
My vote goes to Hasse
Voting for Cortez, Juan. Mi gente, bro!
Hasse will defeat crooked Cortez like mother like son time to go bye Felicia
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