RUNOFF TURNOUT 70 % OF PRIMARY, EVERY VOTE COUNTS

By Juan Montoya

With the 10-day early voting totals for the 202 runoffs now ended, the 13,055 votes cast in the Democratic Primary lets us dust off our crystal ball and make a few projections.

Overall, the turnout in the runoff, based on the early vote is down about 30 percent of the primary vote.

In the primary, the voting broke down thus (Actual):

Total Votes: 34,416

Early Voting: 18,948 (55 percent)
Election Day Voting:  13,652 (40 percent)
Mai-in Votes: 1,709: (5 percent)

If we extrapolate the statistics based on the 13,055 actual votes just cast in the Democratic Party runoff, we come up with these projections:

Early Voting (Actual): 13,055: Percentage Difference between March 3 Primary (Actual 18,948) and runoff (actual) Early Vote: (68.8, rounded off to 70 percent, about 30 percent less than primary totals.)

The runoff early vote total (13,055) is 55 percent of 23,736. This projected total vote of 23,736 is 68.9 percent (rounded of to 70 percent) of 2020 March 3 Primary total of 34,146

Projected Mail-in Vote for runoff (5 percent of projected 23,736 total): 1,186 

Projected Election Day for runoff (40 percent of projected total of 23,736: 9,494

The early vote is done, as is the mail-in (only the votes that arrive by the election day cutoff will be counted). All that remains is election day, Tuesday, July 14 turnout. In close races in runoffs, and if the statistics hold true, it might be the projected 9,494 election day vote (40 percent) that could decide these elections.

There are three seats up for grab on the Democratic Party ticket which include a runoff for county sheriff between incumbent Omar Lucio and surprisingly strong challenger former District Clerk Eric Garza, a runoff for the 138 state District Court seat between Helen Delgadillo and Gabriela “Gabby” Garcia, and a runoff for state senator District 27 between incumbent Eddie Lucio Jr. and challenger Sara Stapleton Barrera.

Voters: The shame of it is that of the 213,00 registered voters in the county, only 34,416, or about 16.1 percent voted in the Democratic Party primary in March. With 30 percent of those not voting in the runoff, it might be the projected 23,736 (or about 11.1 percent) who will decide the outcome of these important races.

These three races in the Democratic primary runoff will decide who will be the sheriff who will enforce the law and protect residents cross the county, a district judge who will sit in judgment of the people and implement the laws of the state and national constitutions, and a state senator who will make the laws under which we live.

We have likened low voting turnouts analogous to 10 people in a lifeboat where nine (the non-voters) allow one (who votes) to decide who gets the resources (water, food), the place on the boat, and even whether the other nine get to stay on board or drown.

You hold the power in your hands. Please vote.