WILL STATISTICS HOLD TRUE IN SPECIAL CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION? SATELLITE SPENDING FLOODS SOUTH TEXAS RACE

Special to El Rrun-Rrun

According to the Cameron County Elections Department, voters have cast 10,004 ballots during early voting in the District 34 Special Congressional Election.

If the normal statistics hold true, then the 10,004 would amount to some 66 percent of the vote, meaning that election day should see an increase of the vote to some 15,157.

Right now, it would appear that Democrat Dan Sanchez, a former Cameron County commissioner and Republican Mayra Flores will be the leading vote-getters and most people think that neither will get the 50 percent plus 1 vote to take it outright and that there will be a runoff between them.

They point out that the amount of votes cast for the other two candidates (Democrat Rene Coronado and Republican Juana "Janie" Cantu-Cabrera) might take enough votes to send it to the runoff.

That would be fine with Flores and her Texas Republican Party donors, who have funneled $100,000s to prop up her campaign and make inroads into traditionally Democratic South Texas. So far - between the Republican primary and the special election - she has spent more than $1 million.

The pro-Republican PACs are clearly outspending the Democrats trying to get their foot in the door. 

AND THE FLORES WAR CHEST...

However, her pro-gun, anti-immigrant bird whistle messages in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre has not resonated positively in this part of the district.

And Cameron County Democrats have shown some signs of life and of resisting the GOP's efforts to turn the county red.

We have seen the democrats' efforts to organize labor organizations and unions to invigorate the voter turnout, but it is still too early to tell whether they will become a force to be reckoned with during this special election June 14 on in the general election in November. 

During Beto O'Rourke's visit to Brownsville this week, he met with leaders of teacher unions and association in his race for governor of Texas against Greg Abbott.

In fact, unity in the democratic fold has extended to the appointment of Brownsville attorney John Shergold by Demo chair Jared Hockema as labor outreach director. This despite the fact that Shergold rain against Hockema for chair.

"We have to make our party more inclusive and nurture our labor roots like before," Shergold said. 

This Tuesday's voting should give us a good indication to see whether it will affect the results or whether voter fatigue will set in and lower the turnout.