By Jack Herrera
Opinion
New York Times
When James Talarico was born in Round Rock, Texas, in 1989, Democrats controlled both chambers of the Texas statehouse. A reformed frat boy named George W. Bush was still a few years away from becoming governor.
Thirty-seven years later, Texas is solidly red, with Republicans holding both U.S. Senate seats, the governor’s mansion and the State Legislature. But after winning the Democratic Senate primary in March, Mr. Talarico has a chance to become the first Democratic U.S. senator elected in Texas in his lifetime. Not because the state’s Democrats suddenly have their act together but because the party has a perfect candidate to run against: the right-wing warrior Ken Paxton.
Mr. Paxton — who just defeated the incumbent, John Cornyn, in a G.O.P. runoff — is known as a scoundrel. In 2023 he was impeached by the state’s Republican-controlled House on corruption charges (but was acquitted by the State Senate). Last year his wife — a state senator — filed for divorce, accusing him of having an extramarital affair.
Combine that with a midterm election year in which President Trump’s coattails look shorter than they once did, and Mr. Talarico has the best chance a Democratic Senate candidate has had in years.
Over the past decade, the Texas Republican Party deftly navigated the rise of MAGA. It retained the backing of wealthy business interests in the state while expanding its support with middle- and working-class voters. In particular, it has drawn Mexican American voters from the Rio Grande Valley into the Republican coalition. But the party is weaker than it seems.
Because Republican primaries, not general elections, frequently decide who is in power in Texas, politicians like Mr. Paxton often need only the votes of about 3 percent of the population to ultimately win office. That’s made it a lot easier for Republican politicians to drift to the right of Texas’ broader electorate.
Consider, for example, the issue of abortion: The average Texan is conservative when it comes to reproductive health care but not as conservative as Mr. Paxton, the state’s attorney general. According to a 2025 poll, 83 percent of Texans thought abortions should be legal in cases of rape or incest, 82 percent thought abortions should be legal to preserve the mother’s physical health and 84 percent thought abortions should be legal if doctors determined that a fetus would die before or not long after birth. By contrast, in 2023, Mr. Paxton went to great lengths to try to prevent Kate Cox from getting legal approval to terminate her pregnancy after she found out that her fetus had a fatal genetic condition.
This kind of ideological gap exists not only between Mr. Paxton and many Texas voters but also between him and other Republicans. The bitter primary battle between Mr. Paxton and Mr. Cornyn deepened a divide between Texas’ Chamber of Commerce-style Republicans and the harder-right MAGA faithful. Mr. Paxton got Mr. Trump’s endorsement at the 11th hour. Wealthy donors spent tens of millions trying to help Mr. Cornyn, to no avail.
All this leaves an opening for a candidate like Mr. Talarico — a member of the Texas House of Representatives who blends progressive ideas with an overt embrace of his Christian faith. The question now is whether Texas Democrats can take advantage of it.
Thirty-seven years later, Texas is solidly red, with Republicans holding both U.S. Senate seats, the governor’s mansion and the State Legislature. But after winning the Democratic Senate primary in March, Mr. Talarico has a chance to become the first Democratic U.S. senator elected in Texas in his lifetime. Not because the state’s Democrats suddenly have their act together but because the party has a perfect candidate to run against: the right-wing warrior Ken Paxton.
Mr. Paxton — who just defeated the incumbent, John Cornyn, in a G.O.P. runoff — is known as a scoundrel. In 2023 he was impeached by the state’s Republican-controlled House on corruption charges (but was acquitted by the State Senate). Last year his wife — a state senator — filed for divorce, accusing him of having an extramarital affair.
Combine that with a midterm election year in which President Trump’s coattails look shorter than they once did, and Mr. Talarico has the best chance a Democratic Senate candidate has had in years.
Over the past decade, the Texas Republican Party deftly navigated the rise of MAGA. It retained the backing of wealthy business interests in the state while expanding its support with middle- and working-class voters. In particular, it has drawn Mexican American voters from the Rio Grande Valley into the Republican coalition. But the party is weaker than it seems.
Because Republican primaries, not general elections, frequently decide who is in power in Texas, politicians like Mr. Paxton often need only the votes of about 3 percent of the population to ultimately win office. That’s made it a lot easier for Republican politicians to drift to the right of Texas’ broader electorate.
Consider, for example, the issue of abortion: The average Texan is conservative when it comes to reproductive health care but not as conservative as Mr. Paxton, the state’s attorney general. According to a 2025 poll, 83 percent of Texans thought abortions should be legal in cases of rape or incest, 82 percent thought abortions should be legal to preserve the mother’s physical health and 84 percent thought abortions should be legal if doctors determined that a fetus would die before or not long after birth. By contrast, in 2023, Mr. Paxton went to great lengths to try to prevent Kate Cox from getting legal approval to terminate her pregnancy after she found out that her fetus had a fatal genetic condition.
This kind of ideological gap exists not only between Mr. Paxton and many Texas voters but also between him and other Republicans. The bitter primary battle between Mr. Paxton and Mr. Cornyn deepened a divide between Texas’ Chamber of Commerce-style Republicans and the harder-right MAGA faithful. Mr. Paxton got Mr. Trump’s endorsement at the 11th hour. Wealthy donors spent tens of millions trying to help Mr. Cornyn, to no avail.
All this leaves an opening for a candidate like Mr. Talarico — a member of the Texas House of Representatives who blends progressive ideas with an overt embrace of his Christian faith. The question now is whether Texas Democrats can take advantage of it.
1 comment:
Paxton is Republican. Paxton has the support of Trump. Guess who is going to win?
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