By David Leonhardt
New York Times
Late last month, researchers in Israel released some alarming new COVID-19 data. The data showed that many Israelis who had been among the first to receive the vaccine were nonetheless catching the Covid virus. Israelis who had been vaccinated later were not getting infected as often.
The study led to headlines around the world about waning immunity — the idea that vaccines lose their effectiveness over time. In the U.S., the Israeli study accelerated a debate about vaccine booster shots and played a role in the Biden administration’s recent recommendation that all Americans receive a booster shot eight months after their second dose.
But the real story about waning immunity is more complex than the initial headlines suggested. Some scientists believe that the Israeli data was misleading and that U.S. policy on booster shots has gotten ahead of the facts. The evidence for waning immunity is murky, these scientists say, and booster shots may not have a big effect.
After returning from an August break last week, I have spent time reaching out to scientists to ask for their help in understanding the current, confusing stage of the pandemic. How worried should vaccinated people be about the Delta variant? How much risk do children face? Which parts of the Covid story are being overhyped, and which deserve more attention?
I will be trying to answer these questions in the coming weeks. (I’d also like to know what questions you want answered; submit them here.)
One of the main messages I’m hearing from the experts is that conventional wisdom about waning immunity is problematic. Yes, the immunity from the Covid vaccines will wane at some point. But it may not yet have waned in a meaningful way.
“There’s a big difference between needing another shot every six months versus every five years,” Dr. David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “So far, looking at the data we have, I’m not seeing much evidence that we’ve reached that point yet.”
At first glance, the Israeli data seems straightforward: People who had been vaccinated in the winter were more likely to contract the virus this summer than people who had been vaccinated in the spring.
Yet it would truly be proof of waning immunity only if the two groups — the winter and spring vaccine recipients — were otherwise similar to each other. If not, the other differences between them might be the real reason for the gap in the Covid rates.
As it turns out, the two groups were different. The first Israelis to have received the vaccine tended to be more affluent and educated. By coincidence, these same groups later were among the first exposed to the Delta variant, perhaps because they were more likely to travel. Their higher infection rate may have stemmed from the new risks they were taking, not any change in their vaccine protection.
Late last month, researchers in Israel released some alarming new COVID-19 data. The data showed that many Israelis who had been among the first to receive the vaccine were nonetheless catching the Covid virus. Israelis who had been vaccinated later were not getting infected as often.
The study led to headlines around the world about waning immunity — the idea that vaccines lose their effectiveness over time. In the U.S., the Israeli study accelerated a debate about vaccine booster shots and played a role in the Biden administration’s recent recommendation that all Americans receive a booster shot eight months after their second dose.
But the real story about waning immunity is more complex than the initial headlines suggested. Some scientists believe that the Israeli data was misleading and that U.S. policy on booster shots has gotten ahead of the facts. The evidence for waning immunity is murky, these scientists say, and booster shots may not have a big effect.
After returning from an August break last week, I have spent time reaching out to scientists to ask for their help in understanding the current, confusing stage of the pandemic. How worried should vaccinated people be about the Delta variant? How much risk do children face? Which parts of the Covid story are being overhyped, and which deserve more attention?
I will be trying to answer these questions in the coming weeks. (I’d also like to know what questions you want answered; submit them here.)
One of the main messages I’m hearing from the experts is that conventional wisdom about waning immunity is problematic. Yes, the immunity from the Covid vaccines will wane at some point. But it may not yet have waned in a meaningful way.
“There’s a big difference between needing another shot every six months versus every five years,” Dr. David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “So far, looking at the data we have, I’m not seeing much evidence that we’ve reached that point yet.”
Simpson strikes again
At first glance, the Israeli data seems straightforward: People who had been vaccinated in the winter were more likely to contract the virus this summer than people who had been vaccinated in the spring.
Yet it would truly be proof of waning immunity only if the two groups — the winter and spring vaccine recipients — were otherwise similar to each other. If not, the other differences between them might be the real reason for the gap in the Covid rates.
As it turns out, the two groups were different. The first Israelis to have received the vaccine tended to be more affluent and educated. By coincidence, these same groups later were among the first exposed to the Delta variant, perhaps because they were more likely to travel. Their higher infection rate may have stemmed from the new risks they were taking, not any change in their vaccine protection.
Statisticians have a name for this possibility — when topline statistics point to a false conclusion that disappears when you examine subgroups. It’s called Simpson's Paradox.
This paradox may also explain some of the U.S. data that the C.D.C. has cited to justify booster shots. Many Americans began to resume more indoor activities this spring. That more were getting Covid may reflect their newfound Covid exposure (as well as the arrival of Delta), rather than any waning of immunity over time.
This paradox may also explain some of the U.S. data that the C.D.C. has cited to justify booster shots. Many Americans began to resume more indoor activities this spring. That more were getting Covid may reflect their newfound Covid exposure (as well as the arrival of Delta), rather than any waning of immunity over time.
‘Where is it?’
Sure enough, other data supports the notion that vaccine immunity is not waning much.
The ratio of positive Covid tests among older adults and children, for example, does not seem to be changing, Dowdy notes. If waning immunity were a major problem, we should expect to see a faster rise in Covid cases among older people (who were among the first to receive shots). And even the Israeli analysis showed that the vaccines continued to prevent serious Covid illness at essentially the same rate as before.
“If there’s data proving the need for boosters, where is it?” Zeynep Tufekci, the sociologist and Times columnist, has written.
Part of the problem is that the waning-immunity story line is irresistible to many people. The vaccine makers — Pfizer, Moderna and others — have an incentive to promote it, because booster shots will bring them big profits. The C.D.C. and F.D.A., for their part, have a history of extreme caution, even when it harms public health. We in the media tend to suffer from bad-news bias.
And many Americans are so understandably frightened by Covid that they pay more attention to alarming signs than reassuring ones.
12 comments:
Simple answer boost you live don't boost you DIE want more 15k for a funeral
Mexicans have never been comfortable with injections. Well, okay, yes with beef injections.
Get the damned vaccine, gente!
A COVID-19 variant first detected in South Africa could be more infectious than other mutations — and may have the potential of being resistant to vaccines, according to a report.
The C.1.2 strain has been linked to “increased transmissibility” and is said to have mutated the most from the original virus, which first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
- Ouch!
I have gotten all THREE Covid Vaxes. I am still typing with both hands.
Get the vax so you can make tracks.
They keep telling us to avoid this thing through masks, social distancing, shelter in-place, quarantines. But they also want me to line up and repeatedly get injected with it.
Its interesting how trump was accused of killing people with covid but thousands have died since Biden came to office and not even one word from the usual liberals. hypocrites with masks on and still the infections rise.
@11:00PM
Trump did not lift a finger against Covid, you infidel!
600,000 died under Trump's watch, not as many now. Get your shit together and slap it on your fucking face, asshole!!!!
pendejo.
Montoya don't start frightening people, como ese pinche panocha miedoso that was hiding in his closet, because he saw on CNN supposedly trailers full of dead bodies! Remember that pendejo! Pendejo was also Bitching about gringos at South Padre not following mask and gathering mandate! Were there any trailers of dead bodies at South Padre? No, ni madre! Hahahahaha! Now he's bitching about Trump again! People are dying in Afghanistan and este pendejo half coco retard still sucking on Trump's d$*k! I'm glad you took the vaccine, so you can enjoy your soon to come anus cancer, por pendejo! Hahahahaha!
This is the quality of liberals(6:21 am) calling people names because they have no argument.
Trump did nothing about corona? really? Lockdowns, developing a vaccine, etc
what is biden doing differently? Also give it another year, biden will catch up with the deaths, he is only been in office for 7 months.
The bottom line is whoever is in office has limited power against the corona, the virus will keep infecting people whether they are wearing a mask or not, whether you have lockdowns or not , whether you keep a distance or not.
So wear your paper or cloth mask and hide behind the plexiglass ( which by the way studies have come out that neither of them work)
August 31, 2021 at 11:41 AM
Idiota the hillbillys were at the local hospital the following day moron and they had to bring in the refrigerated trailers (remember) pinche idiota pendejo go kiss your idol el pendejo trump he sure has you by your ears wabit
Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaahaha
Such a great display of intelligence and eloquence!!!
A new mask is coming out its call kotex menstrual hygiene oral cavity or buccal cavity for your loose tongue and includes the Kotex original for small mouths, thin and ultra thins for medium mouths, the Security kotex for loose mouths and the Lightdays for teeth and tongue a liner.
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