By Juan Montoya
Remember the "Paul is Dead" hoax?
It was a hoax that started way back in 1966 and then gained traction in 1969. There were clues all over the music and album covers, the story goes.
The Abbey Road album had a photo of the Fab Four walking across the iconic street there is a Volkswagen Beetle with the license plate “LMW 28 IF" just behind McCartney.”
Paul would have been 28 when this album was released IF he was still alive, conspiracy theorists claimed.
This brought to mind some local claims that border on hoaxes locally. In Brownsville, economic development boosters have developed all kinds of claims that also seem to be based on the "IF" of the license plate.
Take for example, City of Brownsville commissioner Rose Gowen's so-called "Active Plan."
At its core, the Active Plan theory is that it can leverage the community’s commitment to local economic development to tap into the allegedly rapidly expanding market for “active tourism” to support job creation and small business activity and encourage tourist spending that injects money into local economies.
According to its proponents, the project will have an enormous economic impact on this highly impoverished but natural-resource-rich area for tourism, job creation and business development—injecting critical small-business investment and generating new tourism revenues along the project route.But there are a lot of IFs in this plan.
According to Gowen et. al., The Active Plan "is expected to generate upwards of $40 million in tourist spending for the region in the 10-year period following completion—and the construction phase for the six catalyst projects are expected to generate an economic impact of $56 million" IF the boosters get the money from the public entities.
By 2017, the city had dedicated more $2,007,133 to hike and bike projects when it issues transportation-related Certificates of Obligation under an ordinance passed in 2012. The latest was the COs issued in 2018 with the 10 percent cut of the total of the CO issue dealing with streets and transportation going to hike and bike trails.
The total construction cost for the six high-priority catalyst projects, including 75 miles of multiuse trails, paddling trails, and bicycle routes was estimated at $36.4 million to build it IF locals cough over the dough. So far, they have.
The projects are anticipated to generate $14 million in labor income and $5.3 million in local, state and federal taxes, and have an economic impact of $56 million IF the theory is true. Each dollar invested in trail construction will be offset by the economic impact of construction alone, yielding $1.53 in economic activity within Cameron County IF everything goes right.
It is estimated that the IF trail construction portion of this project starts it will lead to 453 Cameron County jobs (and $14.3 million in labor income). In the 10th year after the trail network opening, it is estimated that IF non-local visitors come it will create 554 Cameron County jobs (and $16.8 million in labor income).
In the first 10 years, IF out-of-town visitors associated with the catalyst projects come, they are projected to spend nearly $367 million in Cameron County. By the 10th year following construction of the six catalyst projects - IF they are paid for by the public - it is estimated that non-local visitors will spend $39.6 million in Cameron County, generate $17 million in labor income, have a total annual economic impact of $57 million and provide more than $9 million in local, state and federal taxes.
So many IFs and so little to show going into eight years of funding these projects. Where are the millions and active tourists Rose?
The projects are anticipated to generate $14 million in labor income and $5.3 million in local, state and federal taxes, and have an economic impact of $56 million IF the theory is true. Each dollar invested in trail construction will be offset by the economic impact of construction alone, yielding $1.53 in economic activity within Cameron County IF everything goes right.
It is estimated that the IF trail construction portion of this project starts it will lead to 453 Cameron County jobs (and $14.3 million in labor income). In the 10th year after the trail network opening, it is estimated that IF non-local visitors come it will create 554 Cameron County jobs (and $16.8 million in labor income).
In the first 10 years, IF out-of-town visitors associated with the catalyst projects come, they are projected to spend nearly $367 million in Cameron County. By the 10th year following construction of the six catalyst projects - IF they are paid for by the public - it is estimated that non-local visitors will spend $39.6 million in Cameron County, generate $17 million in labor income, have a total annual economic impact of $57 million and provide more than $9 million in local, state and federal taxes.
So many IFs and so little to show going into eight years of funding these projects. Where are the millions and active tourists Rose?
Gowen is not the only one whose projects will come to fruition IF everything goes right.
A recent forum has predicted a high demand of workers at the Port of Brownsville. According to a recent workforce summit at the Port of Brownsville, approximately 9,000 jobs or more are expected in the Brownsville area with the omnipresent IFs associated with such rosy scenarios.
Pat Hobbs with Workforce Solutions Cameron said this about the current and upcoming employment landscape in the region. “I would say it’s a high demand. We’re hurting for a skilled trades workforce.”
The port is projecting growth IF projects come to fruition and IF there are workers to fill the demand. and is now in the process of looking for workers to fill new jobs. Most positions said have an emphasis in skilled labor and come as a result of upcoming projects such as ship building IF the enterprise takes off and IF a major dredging project is done and - IF approved - the arrival of the LNG facilities.
“We’re in the planning stages now. Working with the colleges in the area to build training programs to satisfy their workforce needs, ” said Hobbs.
Recently the U.S. Navy announced that Brownsville is currently considered to be an option for dismantling a historic carrier IF workers can be found to dismantle a nuclear carrier. Hobbs says most of the upcoming employment activity is at the port IF .
One of the largest prospective sites for employment is the Rio Grande LNG project, IF it goes through and all the permits are granted. Plans to begin construction as early as 2020, IF....
Matt Schatzman, NextDecade LLC, “(IF and)When this project starts construction, we’ll have created 6,000 direct jobs during construction. (And IF it does happen) after we’re finished nearly 5,000 permanent jobs, a majority which is of which are in Cameron County. I think people that know that are very supportive of the project."
And of course, the biggest IF project is the SpaceX commercial vertical launch station which was supposed to provide up to 500 good-paying $75,000 jobs IF the first launch was in 2013. We're in 2019 today with no launches in sight yet. No launches, no jobs, but $35 million tax abatements and incentives for SpaceX.But now it's going to be a "Hopper" test site with an unknown number of technical jobs that might increase IF billionaire Elon Musk gets to send people to Mars from Boca Chica Beach IF...
And don't get us going on the $500 million Tensaka plant which will be built IF...
As we have learned, the story about Paul being dead was a hoax, but we still plunked down out bucks to play the records backwards and get some clue. The examples above indicate that the public is plunking its bucks because we have been warned that the good jobs will not materialize IF we don't...
23 comments:
Biggest waste of money from 4B plus any where the CO they can get to take people properties for more bike and hike trails. All the commissioners are at fault period. Our new mayor is going to get to bottom of this spending mess. He will use the 4B monies for buying all the buildings from Golansky for the citizens to build more bars. That's the quality of life for Brownsville. Nothing will change for Brownsville but to be continued to be the laughing stock of the RGV. Awards for been stupid in Brownsville at the commissioners court.
And "IF" she get re-elected
The Off-White mayor will continue the trend making the whites richer and his kind poorer
Looks like they got it from a junk yard no wonder they can't start the dam thing and they're using gas not diesel pinches ingenieros
"Donde Esta Mi Raza" con Ruben De La Cruz listen to it cocos off-whites...
Juan please look into the scam pub and cob resaca “restoration” project. They spent millions and accomplished nothing. The equipment is located behind the zoo and has rusted away beyond use. Thank you.
To July 10 at 10:09,
"And "IF" she get re-elected",
BEST COMMENT EVER!
The good doctor should be addressing the hard issues facing our community like the rise in newly diagnosed HIV cases here in our community, you would think a doctor would be concerned about health issues.
Juan lots if IF's that never became a reality
"that never became a reality"
Don't know where you've been but they have already spend millions on the never used bike trails and who knows what else.
I do not disagree with the format of this post. Given how many times Brownsville has been screwed over all of the ifs are valid. But I believe you are already campaigning for Rose Gowen's challenger. Again I think your entire format is great. It is about time someone summarized all of the ifs. But Rose angered a lot of people when she voted for Mike Hernandez tourist idea of a hospitality school hotel. Her vote was clearly based on the ifs you question, so is Mike Hernandez hospitality hotel idea also a big IF?
Just asking?
She needs to go campaigning against her started when she voted for the bike trails and other non esentials
That thing looks like Mothman.
More of the same, number one priority has and will continue to be downtown rehabilitation and more useless bike lines/trails. Forget about building sidewalks, drainage improvements or street maintenance.
Juan puros projects to No Where land. Complete Waste of tax payers monies, fraud, cheat, bribes etc etc etc. all the time.
'Don't buy a pig in a poke' might seem odd and archaic language. It's true that the phrase is very old, but actually it can be taken quite literally and remains good advice.
The advice being given is 'don't buy a pig until you have seen it'. This is enshrined in British commercial law as 'caveat emptor' - Latin for 'let the buyer beware'. This remains the guiding principle of commerce in many countries and, in essence, supports the view that if you buy something you take responsibility to make sure it is what you intended to buy.
A pig in a pokeA poke is a sack or bag. It has a French origin as 'poque' and, like several other French words, its diminutive is formed by adding 'ette' or 'et' - hence 'pocket' began life with the meaning 'small bag'. Poke is still in use in several English-speaking countries, notably Scotland and the USA, and describes just the sort of bag that would be useful for carrying a piglet to market.
A pig that's in a poke might turn out to be no pig at all. If a merchant tried to cheat by substituting a lower value animal, the trick could be uncovered by letting the cat out of the bag. Many other European languages have a version of this phrase - most of them translating into English as a warning not to 'buy a cat in a bag'. The advice has stood the test of time and people have been repeating it in one form or the other for getting on for five hundred years, maybe longer.
I agree with 11:35 and it seems that it will continue we need to vote out these self serving politicians. The port needs to be looked at
Her dream "Tour Del Barrio" never materialized
Municipalities reflect what the taxpayers will put up with. What people will put up with is what they are accustomed to. If the good people of Brownsville want streets that are navigable, and drainage systems that work then they should vote for responsible people that will accomplish those things.
Many of the people of Brownsville are not registered to or chose not to vote, "Sic" so this is what you get. A continuous swapping out of connected people that may not have the cities best interests at heart.
It was expected an explosion at the launch site next time it will be bigger and deadly. Expect the same from LNG.
folks all these things or items here has plenty of statistics about money multipilers that money they will generate, jobs to be generated puro pie in the sky dreams i say, give me some of that good weed you folks on the city commission are smoking so i can relax too. These numbers are all smoke and mirros, dog and pony shows. How many times have the EDC offices both 4A and 4B been scammed with all these pie in the sky ideas? Titan tires, port of brownsville bridge too far, just a couple i can think off. Brownsville City commissioners and mayors are not good stewards of tax money. I recommend from now on, let them (city mayors and commissioners) pay for all these stupid projects out of their own pocket books. Nombre cayate y shut up dude. But i know it wont happen.
That thing has two red eyes looks like its ready to explode!!!
It came from Gavino's Junk Yard.
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